Microsoft in 2008
10 Predictions by Mary Jo Foley:
- First up: Expect “Fiji,” the new version of Windows Media Center, to resurface. Fiji, which probably now has a boring codename like Windows 6.5, will reemerge from information lock-down in early 2008. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Microsoft field a private test build of Fiji as soon as January (timed with the Consumer Electronics Show). Because Fiji allegedly requires Vista Service Pack 1 to work, a public beta is probably unlikely until spring. Final Fiji release: I’m betting late summer 2008 (in time for Holiday 2008 preloads).

- Apple is none too happy when it can’t maintain its shroud of secrecy. That’s why Apple still hasn’t announced — even though it would make many business customers happy — that it licensed the ActiveSync protocol from Microsoft that will make it easier to sync the iPhone with Exchange Server.
But Apple can’t hold off forever. CEO Steve Jobs might admit Apple inked the licensing agreement with Microsoft at Macworld in January. Or he might wait until later next year to acknowledge the deal. But in 2008, Apple will admit publicly that it has sought Redmond’s blessing, yet again.
- Ever since Microsoft brought in Electronic Arts executive Don Mattrick to run its Interactive Entertainment Business, there have been a lot of changes on the gaming side of Microsoft. That’s no coincidence: Mattrick is cleaning house, sources say. And one of the next casualties could be Shane Kim, Corporate VP of Microsoft Game Studios. Expect more game-related shake-ups at Microsoft in 2008.
- Now that Facebook has opened up its development platform to other social-networking vendors, it seems obvious that Microsoft would want to get onboard. So far, other than fielding a Facebook development toolkit, Microsoft hasn’t talked about its dev strategy for Facebook. But in 2008, watch for the Redmondians to announce more tools to help Facebook combat Google’s (still-vaporish) OpenSocial. (And don’t be surprised to see some patent-sword rattling by Microsoft regarding OpenSocial, in the process.)

- When Roz Ho left her post as head of the Microsoft Mac Business Unit earlier this year, she disappeared into the depths of the Mobile and Entertainment Division. Word is Ho is heading up the mysterious “Pink and Purple” project, which is all about bringing Zune features and functionality to Windows Mobile devices. It sounds like Ho also is part of the oft-denied skunkworks project to create a Microsoft ZunePhone. Word is some of the new Windows Mobile music features will see the light of day (in beta or final form) in 2008.
- Even though Windows 7 isn’t expected to ship until 2010, word is that Office 14 is still on track to be released to manufacturing in 2009. If Microsoft sticks to schedule, the company could field Beta 1 of the product in 2008.

- Microsoft is slowly but surely fielding more Microsoft-hosted enterprise services that it is marketing to large enterprises. In 2007, Microsoft made a push for Microsoft-hosted Office Communications Server, SharePoint and Exchange. In 2008, expect Microsoft to add Forefront security and a business-intelligence bundle to its Office Online price list.
- In February, Microsoft’s Open Office XML will be up for ISO standards consideration. Despite the best attempts of Microsoft’s adversaries and critics to derail it, OOXML is finally going to get the ISO nod. That doesn’t mean the OOXML vs. ODF/CDF battle won’t continue, given that big government contracts stipulating “open” formats are at stake. But one more hurdle for OOXML’s acceptance will be behind Microsoft in the new year.
- Windows 7 exists. Folks inside Microsoft are running early builds already. Does that mean we can count on seeing test builds of Windows 7 in 2008? I bet not. I’d be very surprised to see any kind of broad tech preview out next year. The only thing that would surprise me more: Istartedsomething.com blogger Long Zheng being appointed as Microsoft’s new Director of Windows Client Disclosure. Bottom line: If you’re hoping to see 7 in 08, don’t hold your breath.
- Bruce Chizen, Adobe’s CEO who abruptly resigned in 2007, has been mum on his future plans. But sources say Chizen is going to join Microsoft to run the Expression team in the new year. As Microsoft watchers know, Adobe and Microsoft are competing head-to-head in the design-tool space. If the sources are right (and there are no non-competes in the way), Chizen may have a new roost to rule soon.
Will startups or big companies have a bigger impact on tech in 2008?
For the past four decades, the tech industry has had a romantic infatuation with startups. Much of that is due to the fact that many of today’s biggest billion dollar tech giants began as fledgling startups in basements and garages. In the 1970s and 1980s, it was mostly startups involved in the rise of the PC. In the 1990s it was startups hitched to the birth and growth of the Internet. During the past few years, the infatuation has transferred to the startups powering the Web 2.0 revolution, which is basically the transformation of the Internet into an application, services, and social collaboration platform.
While startups have an enchanting aura of energy, passion, and innovation, big companies — even the ones that used to be cool startups — are often saddled with the stereotype of being boring, bogged-down, and conservative. Nevertheless, the best, coolest, and most important work in tech is not reserved for startups. The truth is that startups and big businesses typically operate with two distinctly different sets of priorities and challenges.
All of this begs the question of whether startups or big companies will have a larger impact on business technology in 2008. The answer is complicated since startups are about new ideas and innovations and big companies are about people and processes. To take it one step further, startups are usually about launching new ideas to successfully gain a following and show the potential to become a big idea, while big companies are about about building the right teams and processes to systemically deliver successes again and again.
With that in mind, here are some predictions for tech startups and big tech companies in 2008.
In 2008, tech startups will …
* Use their nimbleness and focus to take advantage of specific opportunities that big companies have not figured out how to crack (e.g. Web video and online collaboration).
* Struggle with resources as a result of the credit crunch and the slowing world economy.
* Witness a major consolidation of Web 2.0 vendors, with some going under as they run out of money and/or don’t have a product that has differentiated itself in the market and others being acquired by competitors or big companies
* Create new markets and new opportunities with ideas that fly in the face of conventional wisdom
In 2008, big tech companies will …
* Use their experience and deep pockets to patiently wait for markets like WiMAX, UMPC, and VoIP to mature, become profitable, and eventually revolutionize certain aspects of work and play.
* Take ideas that had big potential as a startup and do the hard work of building an infrastructure to systematize and channel that potential into a sustainable success.
* Repeatedly fail to execute on ideas that they should be able to get right because of a lack of focus and/or having too many cooks in the kitchen — for example, simplifying security configuration for users and IT.
* Use their resources and scale to successfully bring great ideas to the masses and thereby make a major impact on culture and daily life (e.g. the Tablet PC and touch-based interface).
So which will have the larger impact on tech in 2008? Because the Web 2.0 movement has reached the point where it’s time for consolidation, commoditization, and monetization, the pendulum is going to be swinging toward big companies in 2008. In fact, many of the Internet’s long-promised revolutionary advances (for example, in telephony, video, conferencing, and collaboration) are at the point where they need capital, organization, and systemization — all of which play to the strengths of big business.
